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Dollar Drops Further -- Oil Prices Soaring

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candoarms
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1932 North Dakota
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2008-06-11          154503


Dear friends,

The Department of Energy released a report this morning that sent Oil futures skyrocketing. The weak dollar continues to add fuel to the fire.

The value of the U.S. Dollar is falling rapidly again today, causing oil producing nations to demand more U.S. Dollars for each barrel of oil. This downward trend, in the value of the U.S. Dollar, has been going on since the "War on Terrorism" started.

The Fall of Rome?

For more news on this story, please visit the following link.

Joel


Link:   Oil Spikes, Weakening Dollar

 
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Murf
Join Date: Dec 1999
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2008-06-11          154508


Sounds more like 'equalization' than anything else.

A gallon of gas for $4.05 ????

Where do I line up? I filled up the car last night on my way to dinner with the little lady, I paid (including US / CDN exchange) $5.25 a gallon for premium, the regular was selling for $4.80 a gallon.

My family in Ireland says gas prices currently are nearly $8.00 a gallon and I have friends who just got back from the south of Europe (France, Portugal & Spain) they said gas was above $8.00 a gallon everywhere they went, and in one spot it was above $9.00 a gallon.

Despite the fact that I'm a raging capitalist, I think we've been a little too spoiled for too long when it comes to things like gasoline, water and food.

The US uses, on average, 1,635.2 liters of gasoline per person, per year. In contrast to other countries, that is something like 6 times the European average consumption, and more than double that of all other "high income developed countries. It's even 36% higher than it is up here in Canada.

Sounds like it's belt-tightening time.

Best of luck. ....

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candoarms
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2008-06-11          154510


Murf,

There are many people in the U.S. who believe that the high price of oil is caused by an "oil shortage". Nope. There is no oil shortage. Everyone has all the oil they can get their hands on. There are no lines at the pumps, because every station has plenty of gasoline, and there's no threat of it running out.

The sudden increase in oil prices -- from about 45 dollars per barrel during Clinton's terms in office, to now over 135 dollars per barrel, just 10 years later -- is mostly due to the SHARP drop in the value of the U.S. Dollar.

Oil, throughout the world, is sold in U.S. Dollars. The Dollar is the basis for the price of oil, world-over. However, the Euro recently took off. The Dollar is now weaker than the Euro by a WIDE margin....and it continues to fall.

Due to the higher value of the Euro, oil producing nations are demanding more U.S. Dollars in order to make up the difference.

War is a very expensive undertaking. Wars require huge sums of money, which brings on debt. The resulting debt severely harms the value of the war-making nation's currency. This war on terrorism has caused more harm to the people of the world than any raghead and his friends ever could.

Joel ....

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kwschumm
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2008-06-11          154512


I disagree.

It's not the falling dollar, it's not a shortage, it's not the war, and demand is high but supply can rise to fill it.

The rising price of oil is caused by the environmentalists and the politicians who are at their beck and call. We can't use our own oil and coal resources, we can't build nuke plants, we can't build refineries, we have to import everything. That puts us at huge risk from a cartel that consists mostly of people who want to destroy us.

Sustainability comes from using our own resources rather than importing everything. Somehow the whack jobs think sustainability comes from using other countries resources, be it timber, oil, or labor. ....

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candoarms
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2008-06-11          154515


Kwschumm,

It is true that the eco-kick, nut-jobs have hindered many oil exploration projects. They've made it nearly impossible for investors in such projects to ever get a dime back on their investments, due to delays concerning environmental impact studies, lawsuits, etc. This fact does not have any impact on the recent spike in oil prices, however.

The two biggest factors, regarding the price of oil on the world market, are high increases in usage by China and other up-start industrial nations, which creates additional demand for the oil -- coupled with the falling value of the U.S. Dollar.

The U.S. Federal Government is very fearful that the OPEC nations will soon stop accepting the U.S. Dollar as payment for oil. There's a whole lot of talk in the middle east that those nations may soon start demanding payment in Euros. If that happens, the price of a barrel of oil, here in the U.S., will jump MUCH higher.

There's talk on Wall Street that some nations are already basing their oil sales on the value of the Euro, even though those foreign governments have not yet officially announced the change......possibly because of fear of U.S. retribution.

Joel ....

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kwschumm
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2008-06-11          154517


The lack of domestic oil development has to affect prices - it reduces supply. The lack of refinery capacity also affects prices - we are now importing refined product instead of just crude.

Regarding the other, if high oil prices is the price we have to pay to once again become self sufficient energy-wise then in the long run it will be a good thing, although very painful in the interim. ....

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auerbach
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2008-06-12          154530


If you're buying an offshore tractor, grab one that's already here. The cost of shipping a standard 40' container, $3000 in the year 2000, is now $8000 and rising. If you're a manufacturer who's been screwed by cheap offhsore imports, relax and smile. ....

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kthompson
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2008-06-12          154534


On ABC news this morning they were discussing the foreign companies buying of US property and companies (even railroad) much due to the dollar's drop. FYI, they credited it to not the cost of war but the large debt. Look at who ran up the debt and then think about the promises being made by at least one presidential candidate.

I think it could be time to import politicians. We sure have a few we need to export at low, bargain prices. kt
....

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candoarms
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2008-06-12          154536


Kthompson,

Debt is the result of too much spending........and NOTHING costs more than fighting a war.

Over the past several years, the Federal Reserve has continued to print more and more money, in order to help feed a very hungry Federal Government, who can't seem to get enough money to feed itself and its expensive habits.

This HUGE increase in the money supply (M3) has driven down the value of the U.S. Dollar, to near record low levels.

On the brighter side..........

The Federal Reserve announced this morning (Thursday June 12th) that the high inflation rates are we are currently experiencing are a result of too much cheap money. Therefore, the Fed is making plans to increase interest rates in the coming months, but possibly not until after the national elections are held, this coming November.

This is good news. Higher interest rates make the U.S. Dollar harder to get our hands on, and therefore drives up its value. The U.S. Dollar is STRONG this morning.......way up against both the Euro and the Yen.

The stronger U.S. Dollar also plays a major role in the price of crude oil, which is also down by over 3 Dollars per barrel in early trading today.

Joel ....

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Murf
Join Date: Dec 1999
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2008-06-12          154538


Quote:
Originally Posted by candoarms | view 154510
The sudden increase in oil prices -- from about 45 dollars per barrel during Clinton's terms in office, to now over 135 dollars per barrel, just 10 years later -- is mostly due to the SHARP drop in the value of the U.S. Dollar. Oil, throughout the world, is sold in U.S. Dollars.The Dollar is the basis for the price of oil, world-over.However, the Euro recently took off.The Dollar is now weaker than the Euro by a WIDE margin....and it continues to fall.Due to the higher value of the Euro, oil producing nations are demanding more U.S. Dollars in order to make up the difference.


Joel, with all due respect, you're a little off the mark here.

First off, if you look at the price of oil & the US $ / Euro exchange rate over the last few years it looks like this;

2001 - US$/Eur. = 1.11691 (100%)
2002 - US$/Eur. = 1.06106 (94.99%)
2003 - US$/Eur. = 0.88540 (79.27%)
2004 - US$/Eur. = 0.80510 (72.08%)
2005 - US$/Eur. = 0.80443 (72.02%)
2006 - US$/Eur. = 0.79714 (71.37%)
2007 - US$/Eur. = 0.73096 (65.44%)
2008 - US$/Eur. = 0.65533 (58.67%)

The US$ is worth 58.67% of what it was worth against the Euro in 2001. so it has lost 41.33% of it's relative value.

The price of oil over the same period (in US$ as annual averages for West Texas Inter. crude) has been;

2001 - $25.98
2002 - $26.18
2003 - $31.08
2004 - $41.51
2005 - $56.64
2006 - $66.05
2007 - $72.34
2008 - $132.30 (as of today)

So, as of today, the price of oil is up some 509% over the 2001 average, while the dollar has only lost 41.33% of it's relative value against the Euro., or less than 1/12th of the increase in the price of oil.

Further, I think you're confused about one small point, oil is QUOTED in US$, but there is no correlation between the value of one and the other. It is merely a common denominator, sort of like speaking English as a common business language. The price of oil is determined by an auction if you will on the world market, the price people are willing to pay, now (spot) and in the future (futures) determine the sale price.

Currently many factors, not the least of which is the sub-prime mortgage problems, and associated massive, losses are pushing institutional investors to buy heavily in the oil sector.

BTW, it's not just oil that's up either, the price of gold has gone from ~US$275/oz in 2001 to over US$1000/oz this spring, although it's eased back to ~US$875/oz now. That's well over a 300% increase also.

Best of luck. ....

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candoarms
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2008-06-12          154540


Murf,

If we look carefully at the numbers you posted, (by the way, Thank You!) we will see that the U.S. Dollar is worth roughly 60% of what it was in 2001.

During these past 8 years, world-wide oil consumption has increased by a substantial margin. This fact, alone, would account for about half of the increase in price of a barrel of oil.

The other (roughly) half of the increase can be accounted for with the drop in value of our purchasing power......a worthless U.S. Dollar.

Since the early 1950s, ALL oil on the world market has been priced in U.S. Dollars. (Partly because we demanded this from the oil producing countries.) This is no longer the case. Iran (now U.S. enemy #1.) is selling oil based in Euros. This, more than anything else, has the U.S. government throwing a tirade!

Please visit the story at the following link, by Steve Austin. Iranian Oil Bourse Opening, dated Feb. 6th, 2008.

Joel
....


Link:   Iranian Oil Bourse Opening -- Oil now priced in Euros

 
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candoarms
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2008-06-12          154541


Murf,

I need to fix up a mistake I made in my earlier message.

U.S. Dollars have been the only accepted form of payment for ALL oil on the world market, since 1971.

Ooops. My error.

Joel ....


Link:   Oil for U.S. Dollars ONLY

 
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Murf
Join Date: Dec 1999
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2008-06-12          154542


Quote:
Originally Posted by candoarms | view 154540
During these past 8 years, world-wide oil consumption has increased by a substantial margin.This fact, alone, would account for about half of the increase in price of a barrel of oil.The other (roughly) half of the increase can be accounted for with the drop in value of our purchasing power......a worthless U.S. Dollar.


That's not correct either.

Global oil consumption has been almost perfectly steady at about 4.1 barrels per person, per year (give or take 0.25 barrels per year) since 1971. The population has been rising though, and that means total consumption did too, at a rate of about 1.275% a year in an exponential manner.

You also cannot take a single currency like the Euro and say this is what happened. For example, since 2001 the US$ has only lost about 3% when compared to the Japanese Yen, and about 28% compared to the British Pound.

Can you explain your math please, how could a 40% drop in the value of the dollar account for half of a 500% increase in the price of oil? 40% = 250%? I don't think so.

Finally, again, I say, the price is QUOTED in US $, it is NOT FIXED to the US $. There is a world of difference.

If a Russian speaks English it doesn't mean he stops being Russian.

Best of luck. ....

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DRankin
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2008-06-13          154553


Whatever is going on here, I am certain George Bush is at the bottom of it. If only Gore was president none of this would be happening.:)

Actually this reminds me of an old drunk who spent the last 40 years soaking up the sauce and burning the candle at both ends.

One day he wakes up and finds his family gone, his health in shambles and his life over. Then he decides he is having a by-God-emergency and starts raising hell and screaming demands at anyone who will listen.

The point? America has been on this carefully constructed path for 4 decades, ever since it was deemed illegal (or impossible) to build a new refinery; ever since it it became illegal to drill new wells anywhere on our soil.

It has gotten to the point where unfriendly nations can drill 60 miles off our shores but our own people can't.

What did we think was going to happen? Duh!

The real surprise to me is that we skated so long. We as a nation worked damn hard, with a single minded purpose and a total lack of logic to get here, and now we are here.

So lets fork over the $5.00 a gallon (or more) and enjoy the fruits of our planning and labor.

BTW, I can't wait until congress starts taxing the oil companies so we can drive them overseas and raise the prices even further. That will teach us a lesson!

Maybe we can force the oil majors to give back half their profit. I figure that could save me as much as 70 cents on each fill-up. That's $10-$11 bucks a year back in my pocket!

Now I can continue to feed the cat.
....

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kthompson
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2008-06-13          154562


Quote:
Originally Posted by DRankin | view 154553
Whatever is going on here, I am certain George Bush is at the bottom of it. If only Gore was president none of this would be happening.


I hate to ask but you are not serious on this statement are you? With Gore being the tree hugger and the climate war monger and such.

It is not only the Democrats but they have for the most part been the leaders who have taken that stand in making laws and regulations. It amazes me we elect such "STUPID" people once but keep electing them. I am not just talking Democrats. No way the current leadership in the Democrat Party is going to solve all of our problems and soon we will have all the oil we need from Iran and the other countries that are not a threat that ole Obama will be able solve our relationship problems with by being so giving. kt ....

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kwschumm
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2008-06-13          154566


I'm sure he's not serious. With the mismatched illogical policies both parties have managed to put in place they both are responsible for our lack of energy independence.

What's amazing to me is the stupid ideas that are being floated. Still no support for drilling anywhere in the USA, or fast tracking nuclear plants with cookie cutter designs, or reprocessing of spent nuke fuel, or waiving new air quality standards for coal, or relieving restrictions on oil shale, or dumping tariffs on ethanol from Brazil.

Nope, let's add more taxes on the oil companies that will be passed on to everyone and let's give the little people a 20 cent/gallon moratorium on federal gas tax. Yep, that will fix things.

Maybe a new requirement should be placed on elective office - they should have at least an above average IQ. These folks are, by and large, dolts. ....

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Chief
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2008-06-13          154572


Quote:
Originally Posted by kwschumm | view 154512
I disagree.It's not the falling dollar, it's not a shortage, it's not the war, and demand is high but supply can rise to fill it.The rising price of oil is caused by the environmentalists and the politicians who are at their beck and call. We can't use our own oil and coal resources, we can't build nuke plants, we can't build refineries, we have to import everything. That puts us at huge risk from a cartel that consists mostly of people who want to destroy us.Sustainability comes from using our own resources rather than importing everything. Somehow the whack jobs think sustainability comes from using other countries resources, be it timber, oil, or labor.


Ken,

I think you are on to something.

In my opinion, this is about CONTROL. Control of how you, I and the rest of Amerika live our lives and that includes the energy to live out lives how we choose.

For years, various groups including good ole' Uncle Sam has been pressuring the public to drive smaller more fuel efficient vehicles, live in smaller more energy efficient homes, stop "urban sprawl", save the "speckled hoolapopper", as well as endless other causes and issues.

If you stop and take an objective look around at our "political landscape" (say over the past 50 or 75 years)...........I believe you will find the number and magnatude of controls involuntarily placed upon our lives is not only stiffling but shocking.

Controlling the energy that fuels our lives is the ultimate control short of militarist seizure. We are already WELL along down that road built on a very slippery slope.

Expect even more draconian and totalitarian measures to very gradually be added by Marxists and groups like Gore and the Sierra Club, Republican and Democrat as well as others. Don't be surprised when these folks start talking about population control and a few other things. ....

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Chief
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2008-06-13          154573


I meant to add that apparently the price is still not high enough because folks are still driving the same. Just the other day, my wife witnessed one of our more "porkulent" county public servants drive his truck about 100 yards to go half way around the block as opposed to walking.

Don't get me wrong because I believe it WAS a free country and everyone should have the freedom to behave like this as bad as it may be. His behavior DOES show that he could care less about the price of gas and waste in general and it reflects a national attitude.

As Murf eluded to, it won't be long before we are pining away longing for the good ol'e days when gas was $5 a gallon.



....

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DRankin
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2008-06-13          154577


KT.... not serious..... I fixed it.

Cheif.... speaking of control.... have you read about the "drought" in California?

Turns out that a Federal judge has blocked the importation of water from the Sacramento valley because some stinking little fish is getting stuck in the pump intakes.

Based on that 6 million people have to quit watering their lawns and washing their cars. ....

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Chief
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2008-06-13          154579


Quote:
Originally Posted by DRankin | view 154577
KT.... not serious..... I fixed it.Cheif.... speaking of control.... have you read about the "drought" in California? Turns out that a Federal judge has blocked the importation of water from the Sacramento valley because some stinking little fish is getting stuck in the pump intakes.Based on that 6 million people have to quit watering their lawns and washing their cars.


That is a prima facia example of what I speak of Mark. If I were those folks in CA, I would turn on every spigot and hydrant I could find and run the water dry in protest. ....

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Murf
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2008-06-13          154581


Chief, I like 'speckled hoolapoppers', I have really good luck catching bucket mouth bass on them, especially around dusk, makes them crazy. Don't know if it's the skirt or the popping sound but they sure like them. LOL

Mark, I liked it better before the edit. ;)


Best of luck. ....

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Chief
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2008-06-13          154582


Sorry Murf,

I get on a rant sometimes. These whacko judges, congressmen, and other leaders who love & partake in porn yet stand in judgement against it, support armed kidnapping of children without probable cause, and care more about animals than people, and continually find new ways to take our money, property, and liberties just put a BIG burr under my staddle. ....

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Murf
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2008-06-13          154583


Hey, I'm the last guy to get between someone and a good rant, as they used to say "carry on men!".

I completely sympathize with what you're saying too!

Many years back when I was burning my share of Uncle Sam's money for him, we had a really funny episode, speaking of the speckled hoolapoppers.

One of the things we used to practice (nearly incessantly) was hitting the beach fast and low to exploit the near invisibility of all things near the surface of the water because of the heat rising off the oceans surface. Mostly this was done over a 'practice area' consisting of several deserted islands and cays in the Bahamas, part of the old WWII-era coastal defense system.

That was until a bunch of dolphin huggers caused a fuss about us disrupting the Bottlenose Dolphins in the area.

After much fuss, and study, and likely no small sum of money, a very learned professor declared, not only were we NOT bothering the dolphins, but in fact we were HELPING them!! That's why they were congregating there in the first place! It turns out, the sonic booms and loud noises were not bothering them in the least, but it was screwing up the small fish in the shallows on which they fed, making them easier prey for the dolphins!

The funny part?

A pair of high-ranking elected US Gobbermint officials (wink) arrived to speak to the local goobermint along with the US Ambassador to assure them we weren't destroying their country after all. After the meetings they went fishing, while drinking some local rum, and were charged with several things including fishing out of season and taking more than their limit even if it had been in season. The charges were later dropped as a 'technical oversight'....... ;)


Best of luck. ....

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kthompson
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2008-06-13          154588


I took at as I think you meant it to begin with. Guess I used it for my reason to rant also. What we need to really do is rant in public and get ride of the slim we have in so many offices. Wish it was as simple as all the fault of one party but the Republicans have done nothin the first six years of G. W. Bush term while they held the President, Congress and the Senate to have no leadership ability or desire to make a difference. It amazes me. Our Senator (A Republican who I did vote for six years ago) won the primary against a real conservative this week by about a 2 to 1 margin and he was one of the biggest supporter of giving citizen ship and every free thing to the illegals there was. On top of that it was recorded whene he said those who opposed it were biggots. We may not be committing sucide by shooting ourself in the head but we sure are by who we elect. kt Hey Jeffy, probably Fat Fingers typeed this, I will let you edit. I have more faith in my 5 year old grandchild than those who are in Congress. And think Ted Kennedy a murder is so loved look at all who sang his praises when told about his brain tumor. Anyone ever heard of justice from a higher power?? kt ....

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kthompson
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 5223 South Carolina
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2008-06-13          154589


On a possibly help, anyone have any experience with the soy diesel? Can you gain more from it than it cost to make it for fuel?

Also, did you catch the news today where we (the USA thanks to our fine DC crowd) are subsiding bio-fuel for Europe? The man made part is made in Brazil and shipped to us and then a little diesel (I think it was diesel) is added to made it a blended fuel and shipped to Europe with a dollar a gallon or such discount paid for by you and me. Now if that don't make me proud of the brains in DC hush my mouth. The way they reported it we have given away millions already with it projected to cost many more millions next year. What air heads. But we buy the tune they are blowing. So who is the biggest air head? kt
....

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harvey
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 1539 Moravia, NY
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2008-06-13          154593


Gotta add my $$$ to this I am so PO'd that the same poeple that scream about fuel efficiency are the same ones that create ways to get the Corvair, Bettle, Geo Metro, Honda crx off the roads. because of stupid bumpers etc.

The liberals do not want fuel efficient cars.

Like Glenn Beck said: If a polar bear got his head in the way I'd drill thru it for the oil ANWART. I wont even start on what I'd like to do to the liberals in washington starting with the screacher of the house.

How come no body asked Mary Jo's family what they thought about the communist kennedy's cancer?

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR ....

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Chief
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 4285 Southwest MiddleTennessee
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2008-06-13          154594


Yeah! Go gett'em Harvey! ;-) Man! I feel better now! :O) Venting all of this stress, anger........solving the worlds problems............

Where is that Radmeister Tire Girl?!?!?!?!?! ;-) ....

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kwschumm
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 5764 NW Oregon
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2008-06-13          154602


Since we're ranting I'll vent another of my current peeves. The environmental whack jobs are peddling the idea of "personal carbon credits". Apparently we are all now guilty of environmental atrocities for simply being born. The time is coming - Thomas Jefferson was right. ....

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Chief
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 4285 Southwest MiddleTennessee
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2008-06-14          154605


Pardon my "carbon foot print." ....

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