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Recession coming

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hardwood
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 3583 iowa
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2008-01-26          150767


With the unending bombardment by the news media telling us how bad off we are, that we are either in a recession or one is just around the corner I wondered if the state of our economy could be judged by a snowmobile count. This is the first winter for a while that we have had enough snow to run snowmobiles around here, so, just for kicks I started counting the snowmobiles that went past our house tonight betwen 7 and 8 o'clock. For some reason almost every one of them went north and only a handfull went south. In that one hour period there were 121 that went north in groups of five to 15 and 3 went south. I know less about a snowmobile than a chicken knows about Christmas, so how much does an average one cost? We are very rural, biggest city is 100,000 twenty miles away, A decent house isn't for sale more than a month before it is sold. So, if we are as bad off as the news tells us we are, where did all the money come from to buy 121 snowmobiles that went past on one very rural road in one hour??? Frank. PS, they are going past going south now.

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kwschumm
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 5764 NW Oregon
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2008-01-26          150769


We would all be better off if we turned off the endless doom and gloom bleating of the media. The economy is cyclical, so it will have ups and downs. Same as the weather. Why it's being portrayed as a surprise is reflective of a never ending quest for ratings and other agendas. ....

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harvey
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 1539 Moravia, NY
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2008-01-27          150780


The LIBERAL press can't WHINE about Iraq anylonger since the surge has worked better than expected.

The economy is about the only thing they can try and tie to the Bush adminstration. The more they run it and this country down the better they feel about their jobs. I truely wish if they dislike this president and country so much they would pack their butts up and leave.

They will never say anything positive about Bush! Its all DOOM AND GLOOM!

On the bright side how about the BEATING the rotten to the core CARPETBAGGER, GUNGRABBING WITCH (I could do more but me thinks the PC board might break from pounding the keyboard) from NY took in SC! South Carolina ROCKS! Of course it could be a Bush conspiracy!

Now I feel better! ....

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harvey
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 1539 Moravia, NY
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2008-01-27          150781


Frank now to answer your question. Skigoats cost $8000-$12000 for the Bigones add another $500-$1000 for Suits, Helmets, Boots, etc. Add 15-20 gals gas per outing. Usually ride to Tavern/Food Entertainment another $50-$100. I've left out the trailer and large SUV/Pickup to haul them plus the gas to travel. It adds up.

Of course you could look at greens fees for summer. Fishing trips, hunting and trips, Alpine skiing.

Just an example of hunting predators (Coyotes) I have invested $4000+ in rifles and scopes (last 2 years my other rifles just arn't for predators...), plus reloading equipment, range/trigger time, just spent $1000 plus on reloading components for about 6-8 months of shooting. My brother uses dogs, has 6 of them, $600-$1200 apiece, radio collars $200 each, Garmin GPS for dogs, 2 sets $600 each, kennels, travel kennels... We all use 2 way radios $150 each. I burn 10-20 gals gas 2 days Sat & Sun half a day each trying to stay in fron of Dogs. I have calling equipment and camo over $1500 invested. The season is only 4 months. Summer I do shoot long range woodchucks.

I have yet to get a Coyote in 3 years, I'm not as dedicated as the others they seem to get out every day. So far this group this season has got 7 Coyotes and 2 Red fox.

NOTE: Most have great summer construction jobs work 60-80 hours and look forward to their layoffs so they can hunt, work on HDL's (honey do lists) and travel. Me I work all year now.

Bottom line: Get to spend good time with my brother, nephews, sons and friends doing something that is challenging, takes a lot of skill and some luck.

Predator hunting is one of the fastest growing and most challenging sports there is. Take a look at industry estimates on the money spent.

Sorry if I went off the path and wandered around in the bushes... ....

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earthwrks
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 3853 Home Office in Flat Rock, Michigan
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2008-01-27          150782


I am in the Deroit area. We have been in a recession since 9-11. In my COUNTY alone THIS year there were over 14,000 bankruptcies. And it has been about the same number EVERY year for the past 4 years. I am one of them.

So to answer your question Frany, we would not know if we were in a recession because nothing would really change.

I do know that recession is a state of mind like KW eluded to. I am thinking of making a bumper sticker that I saw here in the 1980 recession that said: We have heard there is a recession. We have decided not to participate.

And this is what I tell my customers (who have income)--why wait to get something done--just DO IT! ....

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hardwood
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 3583 iowa
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2008-01-27          150783


Harvey; Wow, I was thinking probanbly half that much for one, and yes in the daylight I did notice that they all had suits and helmets that matched the paint scheme of their snowmobiles, and I forgot about the trailers, etc. You're also right about the tavern, the local convenience store too. Our closest town, mile and a half from us has a tavern/resturant, convenience store/one gas pump. and a post office/200 boxes. On a Saturday/Sunday afternoon in motorcycle/bicycle season or now in snowmobile season there isn't a place left to park in town for all the snowmobilers. Next question, are snowmobiles made in the US or are they import stuff. I get on kind of a one person rant now and then when I hear people complaining about the US economy, and yet they drive to a Wal Mart in a foreign car and buy all the import junk Wally world sells. If you aren't going to buy cars that we build here, then don't cry about all the laid off US auto workers. I'll probably be banned from the board for all my rants, but at least I feel better now. Frank. ....

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hardwood
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 3583 iowa
TractorPoint Premium Member -- 5 Tractors = Very Frequent Poster

2008-01-27          150784


EW; 14,000 in one year, that is a LOT. As anyone reading my BS has figured out I an in a pretty isolated part of the country where I don't see all that. Our local lumber yard construction crews are still building houses and pole sheds at warp speed in the worst of weather. A friend of mine who has a rather large heavy construction company, (swing hoes, several dozers, scrapers, trucks, etc.) said the other morning at coffee that he is turning down work for lack of the time to get it all done. I guess all my rambling kinda fits your bumper sticker thing. If the news hadn't told me we were in a recession I wouldn't have known it from the looks of things locally. Frank. ....

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earthwrks
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 3853 Home Office in Flat Rock, Michigan
TractorPoint Premium Member -- 5 Tractors = Very Frequent Poster  View my Photos  Pics

2008-01-27          150785


Frank I should have said that the 14,000 was filed this year--as of October. I was one that filed after October so the number likely climbed by another 3-5000. State-wide the number is something like 63,000.

And what I meant by we would not know if we in a recession was--unlike your economy--it could not, but probably will, get worse here.

Ford just announced another 14,000 in layoffs. That is like a entire town losing their jobs.

Also, a friend with his ear to the ground told me that the Chinese are staging to invade the tomato growing industry and supplant the Michigan growers. He said he was told that potentially that would put as many as 200,000 out of work. He said Michigan only but I am thinking perhaps nationwide.

Frank, a few months to sell a home, eh. Here it can be years and in some cases never. Foreclosures in Michigan are somewhere around 240,000. ....

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DennisCTB
Join Date: Nov 1998
Posts: 2652 NorthWest NJ
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2008-01-27          150795


Quote:
Originally Posted by hardwood | view 150767
.... just for kicks I started counting the snowmobiles that went past our house tonight.....


Snowmobile Index or Ferrari Index ?

I used to know someone that would dutifully open the Sunday NY Times and turn to the exotic car classifieds and count the number of Ferraris for sale. He then plotted that number on a graph. If it was increasing the economy was bad if not it was good. Seemed to work for him! ....

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