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JLHall
Join Date: Jun 2004
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2004-06-19          88863

Subject: STATISTICS

These figures are accurate and easily checked--vary year to year but are always close.

1. The number of physicians in the US is 700,000.
2. Accidental deaths caused by Physicians per year are 120,000.
3. Accidental deaths per physician are 0.171. (US Dept. of Health and Human Services)


Then - think about this:
1. The number of gun owners in the US is 80,000,000.
2. The number of accidental gun deaths per year is 1,500.
3. The number of accidental deaths per gun owner is .0000188.

So statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.

Not Everyone Has A Gun, But Almost Everyone Has At Least One Doctor.

Please alert your friends to this alarming threat.
We must ban doctors before this gets out of hand.


reprint/post thanks to minifarmhome.com and ottermoon.com


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cutter
Join Date: Feb 2000
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2004-06-19          88874

I love this! You will never see any favorable statistics in the media however. How about the crime statics in Canada, Britain and Australia since the gun confiscations? Don't hear about that here either, unless you read "right wing" magazines. ....

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Murf
Join Date: Dec 1999
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2004-06-21          89016

Cutter, our guns weren't 'confiscated' here in canada, we were just forced to register them. Handguns and short guns in general can still be legally owned by private law-abiding citizens like myself.

The 'theory' was to start a registry and make sure no 'bad guys' were buying or posessing guns. I guess nobody told the politicians that these crooks were not likely to register their guns before using them illegally, or to declare them as they cross into Canada from the US.

Best of luck. ....

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DRankin
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2004-06-21          89021

As stupid as most politicians appear to be, I doubt that many believe that criminals will register their stolen firearms.

So, there has to be another agenda and I think Australia gives us a clue as to what that might be. ....

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Murf
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2004-06-21          89023

Actually there stated intention was to be able to ascertain whether violent offenders had guns or not.

There is no doubt about whether their logic was flawed or not.

The big problem with htis idealic notion of theirs is that it completely ignores tha fact that the country we share 'the longest undefended border in the world' with has enough guns to that if only a miniscule percentage of them found their way here we would still be swamped in illegal guns in the hands of crooks.

Our crime statistics prove this to be the case.

There is two or three small areas of Toronto where a disproportionate number of shootings occur.

In some of these areas the still of the night (early morning?) is often puncuated by a burst of automatic weapon fire. The gangs of Jamaican kids in particular, they are known as the "The Posse" because of their brand of 'street justice' when they feel wronged, have developed a way of saying 'this is our turf'. They empty a clip from a machine pistol into the air in what they call a 'Jamaican Salute'. In one instance it happened at the funeral of a gang member in front of police, they were hopelessly out-numbered and didn't dare do much but 'inteligence gathering'.

Best of luck. ....

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StephenR
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2004-06-21          89039

Right to Keep and Bear Arms bump! ....

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FERRARI
Join Date: May 2004
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2004-06-21          89043

I have had a license to carry a concealed gun for years, and carry it everywhere....there is a county in Texas, I think, that has a law that everyone HAS TO CARRY A GUN and in that county the crime has gone to almost ZERO...THAT SAYS IT ALL....GET RID OF THE CRIMINALS...NOT THE GUNS! ....

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Murf
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2004-06-21          89044

The scariest part of the whole situation is not, believe it or not, that these punks have guns.

It seems that they have figured out that 'bullet proof' vests are not 'knife proof', so far this year 2 LEO's have been stabbed to death and 5 more have been wounded in hand to hand combat with knife-wielding perps.

Best of luck. ....

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AnnBrush
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2004-06-21          89062

Being a statistician I love these snippets. Of course the reason for providing the data in the manner given was to make a point. NOTE: I am not saying anything here re gun control, that is not the point of my reply, all I want to illustrate is a few points on interpreting statistical data.

Assuming the data is correct, consider the following:

The data essentially point out that the probability of accidential death occuring due to physician is greater than accidential death by gunshot (gun owner), well imagine a society where you were more likely to die from accidential gunshot - hummm pretty violent/grim society. On the face of it the data seem to be outrageous but think about how likely YOU are to die (at any age) from physician error vs gunshot, my money is on the physician death counter.

How many accidential deaths attributed to physicians were actually caused by the physician personally and not just logged as such because the particular physician was the attending physician and therefore on record as having oversight (may not have been directly involved).

In a study comparing one statistic to another the method of data collection has to be similar I suspect the manner of data collection on physician accidential deaths vs gunshot accidential deaths is totally different (therefore not valid to compare).

Physicians are in a life and death business one would expect mistakes to cause death, also medical science is still a hit and miss (er pun not intended) profession. Of more interest would be how many of those deaths were preventable given what we know about a patients condition etc. On the other hand ALL accidential gunshot deaths should be preventable.

What is the age demographic of the accidential deaths, here I suspect physician accidential deaths would be much older, indicating age as an accidential death covariate.

My point is think about data when they are presented, try to consider how the presenter arrived at the conclusions they did. I can tell you statistics can be made to say anything.

Right, I am off to the doctor, wish me luck :) ....

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Murf
Join Date: Dec 1999
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2004-06-21          89063

I would be curious to know if they break down those statistics on 'accidental gunshots'.

I wonder how many people are 'accidentally' shot climbing in or out of a bedroom window, or 'accidentally' shot by a (soon to be ex-) spouse.

Best of luck. ....

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Billy
Join Date: Oct 1999
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2004-06-21          89066

Ann, as you stated "statistics can be made to say anything". It's all according to what a particular group wants it to show.

I will say I like guns (grew up with em and will die with em) but they are also dangerous in the wrong hands.

Did you ever figure out what was wrong with your PTO clutch?

Billy ....

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AnnBrush
Join Date: Mar 2004
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2004-06-21          89068

Billy thanks for your interest. I removed one of the cross bolts attaching the auger to the PHD gear bow and dug four more holes in similar soil and did not see any more "slippage" not to say there was none but didn't notice anything, I am done with that job now so have returned the PHD. I then mowed some pretty heavy grass and when the going got tough the engine labored. It struck me that if the engine was laboring then the clutch would not be slipping, right, anyway that makes me feel better about it, I guess we will see.

BTW hope you die with your guns and not by ,em. I have a few myself, I always make sure anyone who uses guns around me physically demonstrate to me that they know guns. It might be a bit anal but I feel like its my gun saftey bit. Most folk are only too happy to oblige (where is the saftey and is the breech clear etc) as responsible gun ownwers know gun saftey when they see it and you cant be too safe around guns. ....

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FERRARI
Join Date: May 2004
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2004-06-21          89070

Mr Hall, That is a marvelous Post!!!!!! Oh so true....

But, let us see...........If we could only get rid of all of the guns.....wouldn't that solve everything? Well we once got rid of all of the Whiskey.....and that did not work!....Why not get rid of all of the criminals!!!! By gosh, there are countries that send their criminals here....Like Cuba!!!!!This country once fought a war, our first, over a 3% Tax on TEA!!!!
MY GOD!!!! I pay alomst 50% of eveything I make.....Maybe we need to do something about that......
....

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DRankin
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2004-06-21          89078

I will tell you one parameter used in gun death statistics: childhood ends at age 24.

Anyone 23 and under who dies in any gun related incident is a child in that statistical realm.

It is also amazing how many of these "children" are killed in ghetto skirmishes where drugs and turf are causal factors.

In my book you don't put children behind the wheel of a car, or allow them to vote. If you defined childhood at a more realistic age, like under 16... those "gun death among children" stats would probably shrink by 90-95 percent or more. ....

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ncrunch32
Join Date: Dec 2003
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2004-06-21          89080

AnnBrush - you are a statistician in the feed industry? I worked with a lot of Penn State professors (got my MS at PSU) who optimized feed mix using LP simplex algorithm. I since have worked in industrial statistics at IBM and have PhD in applied stats. I use a few tricks here and there (Monte Carlo) to get a handle on things (and impress people) -I estimate future future penetration, demand, etc. But it is forecasting - much like weather forecasting - often inaccurate and can be done equally well with your thumb in the air - but makes nice charts for lots of people. What is the extent of your involvement in statistics? ....

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AnnBrush
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2004-06-22          89150

Ncrunch. I have a Ph.D. (Kentucky) in monogastric nutrition with minors in statistics for both Ph.D. and MS. I am familiar with Bill Roush's work on the stocastic formulation programs he developed while still at PSU (WinFeed program), he is now with USDA. In my current job I oversee all data analysis for our research program. Most of it is linear and nonlinear mixed models (genotype amino acid evaluations etc), mulivariate regression and some principal component analysis, and the bain of my life - field trials. The rest of it is applying controlled research study data to our feed perfomance in the field. Generally the results are there but customers cant see them without a bit of help. I do a bit of work in real-time data summarization of research trials using simple interfaces like Excel, occasionally get SAS to draw a few pretty 3D graphs when the big wigs want something with the wow factor but usually they seem to get by without them. Thats about it. Do you attend any of the SAS SUGI meetings? ....

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ncrunch32
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2004-06-22          89153

AnnBrush, sounds like you are having a good time with stats. I received my PhD later in life from Union College in Schenectady - NY (GE affiliated program). I was involved with the ASA (president of our little local chapter which has since gone belly up since so many IBM statisticians have left).

I am a heavy duty SAS user - mostly matching, merging summarizing large data sets and application of simple statistics. Have in the past worked on survey data for IBM, software reliability modelling, hardware reliability. Currently I am the mainframe forecaster for IBM.

I often thought I might like to attend a SUGI conference - but never got to it. IBM will no longer fund any such trips for us - so it would have to be a local event for me to attend. Nice to know that there are other statisticians who like tractors!







....

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Wildman1
Join Date: Sep 2003
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2004-06-23          89179

There's lies, damned lies and statistics. Depends on whose ox is being gored at the time of the analysis. So, what becomes suspect is who's doing it and their agenda. Oh..their agenda is often cleverly disguised by layers of B.S.

It would be nice if all of these accidental deaths from firearms could be prevented..but that's just not possible. And neither is it possible to prevent all of the other causes of accidental deaths.

This is the real world. We have to live with it. Going to the extremes that alot of moronic politicians do to "prevent" these tragedies is nothing more than "feel good" B.S. politics that does nothing more than cut into our freedoms. Freedom is not free. There are risks involved in living in a free society. If we can't deal with that then we need to go find someother more controlled place to live. BUT..that still won't be a safer place.

....

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StephenR
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2004-06-23          89200

Here's more stats for you, according to Jews for the Preservation of Firearms Ownership, over 56 million innocent individuals have been murder by GOVERNMENTS that have disarmed their populaces and then slaughtered them.

Turkey's gun control laws were established in 1866 and 1911, and from 1915-1917 they murdered over 1.5 million Armenians.

The Soviet Union established gun control in 1929, and from 1929-1953 they murdered 20 million innocent people.

China established gun control in 1935 and 1957, and from 1949 -1976 over 20 million were murdered.

Guatemala established gun control in 1871 and 1964, and from 1960-1981 150,000 Maya Indians were murdered.

Uganda established gun control in 1955 and 1970, and from 1971-1979 300,000 Christians were murdered.

Cambodia established gun control in 1956, and from 1975-1979 1 million educated persons where murdered.

Nazi Germany established gun control in 1928, and from 1933 to 1945 13 million innocent people where murdered.

The fact that our own gun control act of 1968 is a near verbatim translation of the Nazi gun laws, should give pause to us all.

But then again, that can never happen here, we have laws against almost everything. ....

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DRankin
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2004-06-23          89201

Isn't it ironic that the same people who would disarm us are also trying to ban SUV's under the premise that they are too big?

When involved in an accident with a Yugo or a Tercel the bigger vehicle always "wins" and that is unfair? ....

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Murf
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2004-06-23          89202

I read an interesting, thought-provoking article recently which wa written by a social-studies professor in Switzerland.

Switerzerland is an oddity in our overly politically correct world. Even though it has a fine, well-trained and skilled armed force, it is forbidden by it's constitution from sending them beyond it's borders, even for peace-keeping duty. Every fit and able man over the age of 18 must spend a period in the army, and then are part of the 'reserve' until they are too old to serve. Part of this 'reserve duty' means they must keep their service rifle in their homes and ready to go at a moments notice.

The gist of this article was about the movement in North America to disarm the common citizens. His theory to stop this was to promote shooting as a recreational activity and organized sport.

The logic being if it became a big business, with huge profits spread across the whole country, and deep roots in every small town, no politician would dare take away that popular source of income for so many people, range operators, gun shops, ammo. manufacturers, etc.

Although with politics being what it is today I personally wonder if maybe politicians just want to take away the guns so they don't get shot.

Best of luck. ....

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JLHall
Join Date: Jun 2004
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2004-06-23          89204

hey i did not mean to anger or insult anyone with this stat post. it appeared on my forum and i thought you all would get a smile.

the way i see it is even though i grew up with guns and enjoy them. they are tools. tools should only be used by competent sober operators trained in the use of said tools.

i also think any tool can do harm to person on either end.


i know some folks despise guns. wonder if they also hate crescent wrenches. husqvarna 55's easrwing claw hammers


....

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shortmagnum
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2004-06-23          89205

"His theory to stop this was to promote shooting as a recreational activity and organized sport."

Murf, we have such a thing here and it was created by the government. It's called the Civilian Marksmanship Program. An excerpt from their website is below.

"The CMP was created by the U.S. Congress. The original purpose was to provide civilians an opportunity to learn and practice marksmanship skills so they would be skilled marksmen if later called on to serve the U.S. military. Over the years the emphasis of the program shifted to focus on youth development through marksmanship. From 1916 until 1996 the CMP was administered by the U.S. Army. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1996 (TITLE XVI) created the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice & Firearms Safety, Inc. (CPRPFS) to take over administration and promotion of the CMP."

One can even buy guns from the US government through the CMP, especially M1 Garands and '06 Springfields, typically for half that on the open market. Any Vet can order one directly. Others are required to shoot a minimum amount with an approved CMP club prior to ordering. Granted, these are 50 and 100 year old technology, but when is the last time anyone thought they could buy a gun from Uncle Sam. Website below. ....


Link:   CMP site

 
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yooperpete
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2004-06-23          89206

The Swiss are very interesting people. Through my business travels, I've spent lots of time in that beautiful country and talked with many businessman. My favorite town in the world is Zermatt, located at the base of the "Matterhorn". There are no autos in that town and you need to ride a cogwheel train to get to it.

If you use the train system during the summer months, you will undoubtedly see lots of Swiss soldiers on their way to do military training (bootcamp). By law, every public building has an underground Nuke shelter. Every affluent businessman that I met also has one at his home. I think more Swiss die every year by avalanche than by doctors.

They are so meticulous that if they built a car they would also paint the undercarriage to match the car's finish.

In Michigan, I'm waiting for Jennifer Grandholm (our governor) to raise hunting license, etc. She just raised taxes on cigarettes to be the highest tax in the nation. I'm a non-smoker and don't care. She has raised taxes on everything to balance our budget. It hasn't worked. She is a Democrat and keeps spending. Hunting and shooting sports are very big business in Michigan, but I know politicans want to ban guns---no matter what. In Northern Michigan, schools are closed for opening day deer hunting. Our union workers (most are hunters and gun owners) are told to vote the Democratic ticket by their union leaders. So they are voting for the guys taking their rights away.

Glad to see that most of you guys are also pro-gun as I am. If you own a tractor, more than likely you are a common sense working person and have common sense ideas about guns. ....

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Murf
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2004-06-23          89207

Short, I had heard about that program, alas, like many other worthwhile things, is little known or used.

Yooper, they are interesting indeed.

Despite living in some of the most breathtaking scenery in the world, having an exceptionally high standard of living and very low inflation they unfortunately also have the highest teen suicide rate in the world.

No, they don't shoot themselves either, a cliff jump is apparently the favourite method.

Maybe it's just all those damn clocks going off that does it. (Stricly tongue in cheek.)

Best of luck. ....

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jkjordan
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2004-06-23          89218

>Of course the reason for providing the data in the
>manner given was to make a point.

I think most people miss the point - it's a joke. Note the last lines: "Please alert your friends to this alarming threat. We must ban doctors before this gets out of hand." In fact, the first versions I saw were from "humor" mailing lists.

Most versions of this include this statement as well: "Statistics on lawyers were withheld for fear that the shock would cause people to seek medical aid."

Interestingly, all versions I've seen, even those from years ago, used exactly the same numbers, making the data itself suspect or suggesting that the numbers are seriously outdated. If, as suggested the numbers are "accurate and easily checked" why did no one ever check and update them? But considering that it's just a joke, who cares.

Being a joke, the numbers may even be made up and completely untrue, but from all evidence no one EVER checks!

But just as on this forum, I've seen it stir emotions and sometimes serious gun/anti-gun controversy. Some people even pass this on blindly with commentary meant to inflame.


Sadly, this type of tripe shows no sign of ever stopping. Note this web page on the gun/doctor subject from "Break the Chain - Stop junk e-mail and misinformation": http://www.breakthechain.org/exclusives/drguns.html

The site even has an interesting list of more internet nonsense:
http://www.breakthechain.org/jk.html


Note: even if we pretend the gun/doctor statistics are serious and the numbers are accurate, to put this into perspective a more useful list would include other accidental deaths such as from automobile accidents. Or (ack!) how about tractor deaths per tractor owner?

JKJ
....

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Murf
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2004-06-23          89222

Hmmmmm, now I'm thinking, I wonder how many 'accidental deaths' are caused by a firearm after someone came home with a NEW TRACTOR.......

Mark, what happened with "How the heck am I gonna sneak this in the house?"?

Your still posting so I presume there was no near fatalities, LOL.

Best of luck. ....

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kwschumm
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2004-06-23          89236

You know what they say, the best humor is that which contains an element of truth. This brings us back to square one I believe :) ....

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DRankin
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2004-06-25          89339

Hey Murf, Actually she wasn't too surprised.

We have about 1200 square miles of public land just across our back fence. If we lived on a lake that size and didn't have a boat we would be missing something. She agreed with the logic.

Here is another bit of logic: I shopped for small used 4x4's (like older jeeps and Suzuki's) and found out that if it carries a license plate it needs about $75 a month for insurance..... and that cost goes on forever.

The payment for the RTV is $175 a month and when it is paid off all I have to buy is fuel.

So I am using that 75 bucks a month to actually buy something with a re-sale value instead of throwing it into the coffers of an insurance company, never to be seen again. ....

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Murf
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2004-06-25          89342

Pretty sound logic Mark.

Here we have a few 'twists' in the process.

We have the ability to 'unbrand' a vehicle, such as after it has been written off, when it is re-licenced the title shows the brand as "unbranded" but it retains the VIN. Un-branded vehicles cannot be licensed for street use.

To make it further ponderous, we have a law called the "Off Road Motor Vehicles Act" which covers almost any motorized vehicle except those which are 'street legal'. It requires any motorized vehicle (except things like farm vehicles bearing a SMV) to be licensed and insured (liability only) if it is not operated on land the owners own land (rented or leased property is considered owned land).

This was as a result of so many people getting hurt and then sueing for their suffering, etc., even though the owner of the land on which they were riding didn't know they were there or allow it even.

Luckily it pretty cheap to insure a buggy though.

Best of luck. ....

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RCA_TX
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2004-07-05          90120

AnnnBrush said:

Right, I am off to the doctor, wish me luck :)

I hope you made it.:-) I am always somewhat entertained by arguments based on "statistics", especially when a serious point is supposed to be supported by them. I think Ann would agree (She nearly said it.) that we often use statistics to account for the probability of an event whose cause is so complex or poorly understood that we can't predict the event with our knowledge of the cause.

For example, flipping a coin is a common example of a statistically even chance of heads or tails coming up. If we fully understood and controlled its launch in all details and understood local air currects, density, and other influences on its tumbling, I suspect it would be possible to create scenarios where heads came up much more often than tails. A simple example is to lift one edge until it falls over without its other edge leaving the lauch base (much reduced complexity). With such controls in place, predicting the outcome is no longer a statistical problem. Most problems suffer that fate when they are fully understood. While I really enjoyed the Dr/gun accident comments, we are already at risk whem we see a doctor for an ailment serious enough to require risky action. A healthy individual is probably not at risk due to a doctor's action, unless the doctor performs a hit and run on the way to the hospital.

In most cases, statistical evedence I read about supports my observation that there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and for the reasons Ann presented. Statistics are great when it comes to drawing conclusions from a data sample that contains no bias. Too often the known bias is ignored because it adversely affects somebody's agenda.

My gun is at the gunsmith getting a trigger job and my Dr doesn't work on holidays. I must be quite safe. :-)
....

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DRankin
Join Date: Jan 2000
Posts: 5116 Northern Nevada
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2004-07-05          90128

Statistics are like lampposts.

Honest people use them for illumination. Drunks use them for support. ....

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AnnBrush
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 463 Troy OH
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2004-07-06          90203

NCrunch, I had meant to reply but had to go on vacation (too many data). Have always enjoyed the SUGI meetings, always learn something worthwile, last year a bit of SAS code I picked up saved me DAYS of work time, so the meeting more than paid for itself. I too am glad there are other statisticians who love tractors, although if you consider the total population of statisticians its possible that some of them own tractors and then etc etc. ....

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