Go BottomOil Reserves
 | Glenn Fitzgerald
Join Date: Posts: 1 
|
2003-01-20 47848
What would all of our machines be worth without oil? Did you ever think of this when purchasing a new truck,car,tractor,lawn mower etc? Do the governments offer any predictions on how long our worlds reserves will last?100 years? 50 years? 25 years? Or don't they want us to know or they have no idea? When we see the traffic every day in our cities, it's hard to imagine the fuel that is consumed and the size of these underground reserves! How big are the underground oil fields of Saudi Arabia-the size of the great lakes? I read somewhere that the U.S.is about 3% of the worlds population and uses about 30% of it's energy!On another note,what is the average cost of a gallon of regular gas in your area presently?(approx.$1.69 in western NY)
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
 | Billy
Join Date: Oct 1999 Posts: 975 Southeast Oklahoma 
 Pics
|
2003-01-20 47849
Regular unleaded, $1.38 in southeast Oklahoma. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| hardwood
Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3583 iowa 
|
2003-01-21 47860
Glenn,I've never liked that feeling either thar we are at the mercy of unknown reserves mostly owned by other countrys. I'm probably a little one sided on this issue being I'm a farmer, but even tho an auto mechanic friend of mine told me when ethanol blend gas came out that it would ruin the fuel system in cars, I've used it exclusively in every car, gas tractor, lawn mower etc., and never spent a dollar on a problem ethanol caused. Last spring after Deere aproved using Soydiesel, I've ran it in everything, again no problems. I've heard of some places where they harvest methane out of the garbage dumps then blend it in the natural gas, I don't know much about it, but we've got to start somewhere to replace a reserve that will run out someday. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| hardwood
Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3583 iowa
|
2003-01-21 47861
Glenn, Sorry I forgot to respond to your question on gas prices. I havent paid that close attention in the last few days, but I think Ethanol blend is around 1.38 and straight gasoline 1.40, and the high test or whatever they call it now is allways about a dime higher, but only the bigger stations seem to have that. I'm in Eastern Iowa. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
 | DRankin
Join Date: Jan 2000 Posts: 5116 Northern Nevada
Pics
|
2003-01-21 47875
I have lost track of how many times in my life some panel of experts has given us 5 or 7 years till the wells run dry.
They were certainly going to have nothing but air in them by 1975, as I recall.
I can't believe all of them were lying or pushing some political agenda, although certainly some had ulterior motives.
So what is going on? How come the Alaskan pipeline was supposed to pump the North Slope dry in 7 to 10 years and it is still going strong ?
I believe that the creation of oil in the earth in not a static process. The old thinking was that oil was created in folds and pockets of the earth a bazillion years ago and somehow the process stopped and the oil just sat there waiting for us to discover it and pump it out.
When it was gone, it was gone.
But now it is becoming more apparent that the creation of oil is an on-going process and we are nowhere near exhausting our "reserves".
There are wells in Long Beach CA and many other places that have been in continuous daily production for over 70 years.
Even the most extreme wacko's, the kind who would gladly kill you if you don't conform to their environmental gospel, now recognize that they can no longer scare us with the prospect of running out of oil.
Instead they scream and foam at the mouth about global warming and greenhouse gasses and how we Americans are using more than our share of the worlds resources.
The new enemy is the SUV and somehow my pick-up is the ultimate evil in the universe while their Yugo's are a badge of good citizenship in the global economy.
They compare me to someone squatting next to a mud hut in some backwater third-world dictatorship sh--pot and scream that I use more energy resources than he does.
Really?
Who would have guessed?
That mud hut squatter would have died of starvation long ago if not for the "excesses" of the American culture.
Not one of these accusers will go live in that "environmentally friendly" mud hut and drink water out of a river that the people upstream use for a sewer.
No, they are quite content to live out their existence right here, in some religiously motivated lifestyle of energy constraint, where they can criticize everything and do nothing, except eat granola and try to legislate my pick-up out of existence for fear that it will squish them and their tiny car in an accident.
No, I don't think we are running out of oil.
And I don't even think that we are using it as fast as the earth is producing it.
But I am running out of patience with the rest of the world while they eat the food we produced, transported on ships and planes we built, cooked in pots we gave them, and all the while blaming US for all that is wrong and evil in the world.
OK. That is my rant for the month. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
 | StephenR
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 230 New Tripoli, Pa.
Pics
|
2003-01-21 47880
Mark,
You need your own radio show. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
 | dsg
Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 528 Franklin, Maine 
Pics
|
2003-01-21 47903
Yes Mark, Radio show. You have experience talking on the Radio :))
David ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
 | marklugo
Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 281 Tifton, GA
Pics
|
2003-01-22 47943
The truth is is that the American farmer grows everything that is needed to keep our carbon guzzlers running indefinitely. Soydiesel is here to stay with no problems for use in any diesel. In fact small rise in power is observed along with much cleaner emmisions. Several Metro areas are using Soy in their busses. With slightly increased costs. Ethanol has not had quite the breakthrough development of Soydiesel even though it has been around long as moonshiners have run out of gas in run cars. I think that oil companies have prevented the complete substitution for petrol based products. I know mileage and power problems exists but additives can be made to make it work. As far as engine oil and those related issues go, Synthetics are still largely petroleum based but development and research has been done on vegetabler based oils. John Deere has experimented, though with mixed results, with vegetable based hydraulic oil. Further R&D is being done by many state U's.
Watch the Disc Channel enough and you'll sooner or later see those people running their Mercedes SW or old P/U off of used cooking oil.
They have always said neccessity is the mother of invention. And they also have said that the surest road to success is the highway of failure. We have the technology. WE can build it. Do we have the ambition and patience? ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| Mr Ed
Join Date: Posts: 1
|
2003-01-24 48083
I read something in the newspaper the other day that said in 1900 there were all kinds of dire predictions that we would run out of oil, food etc. So what happened? People live better than they ever have (at least in the US) and generally enjoy longer, healthier lives. Even the poorest people in the US enjoy comforts that royalty could only dream about 200 years ago.
We keep finding more oil because the technology keeps getting better. Also, as the price increases, oil that may have been costly to extract becomes economically feasible.
OPEC and other rational oil producers are smart enough to realize there is a balancing act with price. If they set it too high, their will be incentives to develop alternative sources. There is enough shale in the mid west to run our cars for hundreds of years. The problem is that to convert shale to oil would end up costing about $3 a gallon.
I don't think there is much to worry about although disruptions from current supplies could cause hardships in the short run - that is unti the switch is made to an alternative - shale oil, soy diesel, etc. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| johnson445
Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 19 mn
|
2003-01-25 48144
soy diesel and ethanol are not a solution to our energy needs. Currently the US produces almost 10 billion bushels of corn each year and we do not hav surpluses. If we make more ethanol then corn will be in short supply and the price higher thus higher food prics. The same thing applies to soybeans and soy diesel. The solution is more efficient hydrocarbon vehicles such as diesel electric, fuel cells etc. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| marklugo
Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 281 Tifton, GA
Pics
|
2003-01-25 48149
I don't know when the last time you investigated the production of corn, but there are millions of excess bushels produced rotting in silos around the country. In fact, corn prices are so low,(around 2.00 a bushel) less than what was recieved for it 50 years ago. it is forcing many productive acres idle. Also, a huge amount is shipped overseas. If there were a shortage or even an near shortage, you would not find this It is one of the primary reasons that less than 2% of Americans are in farm related industry. As for Soybeans, the situation is nearly the same. Production has fallen to 2.69 billion bushels over last 3 years because of below break even prices due to overproduction. Overproduction, not underproduction is the reason the American farm is disappearing. Whether you realize it or not, agriculture is the backbone of the economy. We have by far the cheapest food prices in the world. Our existing farms are usually at 50% or less capacity. One thing that the average person doesn't understand is that the cost of production is not directly tied to increase or decrease of production. Please, I beg you, investigate how big your mouth is before inserting foot:) ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| johnson445
Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 19 mn
|
2003-01-25 48152
Lets look at facts and take the emotions out of the discussion.
1)An acre of U.S. corn yields about 7,110 pounds of corn for processing into 328 gallons of ethanol. But planting, growing and harvesting that much corn requires about 140 gallons of fossil fuels and costs $347 per acre. Thus, even before corn is converted to ethanol, the feedstock costs $1.05 per gallon of ethanol.
2)Ethanol from corn costs about $1.74 per gallon to produce, compared with about 95 cents to produce a gallon of gasoline. That helps explain why fossil fuels -- not ethanol -- are used to produce ethanol. The growers and processors can't afford to burn ethanol to make ethanol. U.S. drivers couldn't afford it, either, if it weren't for government subsidies to artificially lower the price.
3)The approximately $1 billion a year in current federal and state subsidies (mainly to large corporations) for ethanol production are a direct cost to consumers. Subsidized corn results in higher prices for meat, milk and eggs because about 70 percent of corn grain is fed to livestock and poultry in the United States Increasing ethanol production would further inflate corn prices, In addition to paying tax dollars for ethanol subsidies, consumers would be paying significantly higher food prices in the marketplace.
There are not millions of bushels of corn rotting in silos around the country. America has the best farmers in the world and the best storage and handling system and the system handles the nearly 10 billion bushel crop every year very efficiently(doesn't allow it to rot).
Not sure how you are measuring farming capacity but your statement that current farms are at 50% capacity would imply we could double the output if only we wanted to. This is incorrect!! Every year the number of planted acres in the US goes down and with imporved farming techniques the yield per acres goes up. Just like every other part of our manufacturing based economy farmers are producing more with less every year and at a lower cost. Comparing the current corn price with the 1950's is irrelavant.
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| marklugo
Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 281 Tifton, GA
Pics
|
2003-01-25 48155
Domestic usage is way down for corn. Exports are up. This is an excess. And yes there are millions of bushels rotting or unusuable for food consumption. The use of corn to make ethanol still allows it to be fed to livestock with very positive results. I think that you don't understand that the cost of production per unit will go down as quantity of production increases and technolgy improves. As for the price issue, it DOES have relevance. Fixed production costs have increased while prices remain the same. The subsidy issue is not relevant. Whether they exist or not, everyone agrees that long run prices would stabilize at a "normalprofit" if they were elimenated. The problem is farmers are absorbing the increases in cost of fixed assets. The increase in production that many farmers could handle without significantly increasing the cost of fixed assets would serve to keep prices well under control. Don't forget that farmers are price takers and not makers. They have a homogenous product. There is little or no brand distinction especially on commodities. This serves to keep prices low even if there are no subsidies. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| TomG
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5406 Upper Ottawa Valley
|
2003-01-26 48167
I was reading a novel sometime ago and the ethanol vs. another additive issue was a sideline to the story. It's always risky taking fact from novels (after all, it is called fiction) but here goes. I got the impression that ethanol gas has to do with reducing pollution rather than with it being a substitute energy source. I've never heard that it competes with present sources of fossil fuels. My impression is that the subsidies are intended to make the cleaner burning ethanol gas more competitive to encourage consumption and supposedly reduce air pollution. Just yesterday somebody told me that a friend is a mechanic and he uses nothing but ethanol gas because it makes engines last longer. I hadn't heard that but if it's true I guess that's another reason for using ethanol gas.
I also seem to recall that there are huge resources of shale oil that would provide U.S. energy self-sufficiency for quite some time, but of course at greater cost than present sources. I don't know how the costs of ethanol as an energy source compare with shale oil.
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| hardwood
Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3583 iowa
|
2003-01-26 48177
I have no idea what percentage of our oil is imported from other countrys, nor do I know the size of our strategic reserves, but Im sure that if a group of hostile nations decided to bring us to our knees by just plain cutting our source of oil and we were forced to get along with say 35% of our normal use rate, who would determine who got fuel and who did'nt. I just hope that our government officials who make decisions on such matters, whether it be thru ethanol production, soydiesel, methane production, biomass or whatever have the good sense to keep an eye turned toward long term security, by coming up with ways to make us less dependent on outside sources. If this does become a true dedication of our government, it will cost all of us something, whether he be farmer, factory worker, executive, whatever. We need to quit bashing each others industrys, and just plain get on with solving the problem. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
 | Peters
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 3034 Northern AL
Pics
|
2003-01-27 48269
From the figures I scared up domestic production is some 6 million barrels a day and imports are some 11 million barrels a day. The largest single source is Canada at about 2 million barrels a day.
Domestic proven reserves are currently 20 giga barrels or 3.5 years at our current rate of consumption.
The oil bill for the country is some 80 Billion dollars per year or approximately 1/2 the current trade deficit.
I guess I am concerned as to the rate at which the country is being sold off to pay for the oil bill. There are a number of things that can be done to reduce our dependancy on imported oil. It is difficult to have any clear cut plans when the largest companies in the US are energy based and they have their man in the white house.
I do see some hope as Chevron-Texico is investing in fuel cells and NiMH battery technology.
Incidently there is as large of proven reserves in the oil sands of Alberta as the middle east.
There is a limited amount of oil energy, the drilling and increase in oil fields has allowed relatively stable oil supply since the 70's. If you think about it Europe is self sufficient in oil due to drilling in the north sea. The UK is in the top ten for oil imports for the US. I doubt I would have predicted that 30 years ago.
I have a cousin that has spent time in all the garden oil spots; middle east, Africa, North sea, and is now in Nova Scotia looking for more on the bank.
Compared to the larger reserves there are a number of marginal or small oil fields. I know or wells in Ontario that have been pumping a couple of barrels a day for near 100 years. You need to remember that the oil is not necessarily stored in a void but in rock. It takes time for the oil to flow to the well pipe and there is a finite rate at which you can pump oil from most wells.
Well Mark in Nevada they may still be looking for the King, but in todays hard science there is no self sustaining carbon Fairy, only theories that he has been seen in Nevada. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| DRankin
Join Date: Jan 2000 Posts: 5116 Northern Nevada
Pics
|
2003-01-27 48277
So?
No new magma either?
Someday some volcano will squirt the last of the ancient lava and then volcano's as we know them will pass into history?
Just checking.
I would sign this "the carbon fairy" but I don't want you guys to get the wrong idea and don't want to start a stampede from a nearby California coastal city. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| Peters
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 3034 Northern AL
Pics
|
2003-01-28 48332
The last I heard the rate of subduction/expansion per year is measured in millimeters. The measurement I heard on the ocean trench was something like 17 mm per year. Continental drift has need measured using satellites only for the last 17 years so? Assuming all the crust is 4 km thick and that there is maybe 300,000 miles (480,000 km) of subduction zones in the world, then the steady state of carbon up take into the core would be something like 160 million barrels of material per year.
Obviously not all of this material is carbon containing and not all would be turned into hydrocarbons, therefore we need the carbon fairy if we are to have a the volume of oil currently consumed being naturally generated/renewed in the earth.
Well maybe there are enough of them from southern California in Nevada to provide what you need to believe. Here we are a little more scientific. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| DRankin
Join Date: Jan 2000 Posts: 5116 Northern Nevada
Pics
|
2003-01-28 48346
Did you have to break out your slide rule for this one? That is pretty impressive.
My brother worked on the North Slope (of Alaska) for a drilling outfit. He would find stuff that the drill would bring up from thousands of feet below the surface. Impressions of palm fonds and ferns in what looked like coal, even little fossilized critters.
I will not argue your numbers and your calculations, because quite frankly, I don't have the training to do so.
But I do have to wonder how subduction measured in fractions of an inch per year caught trees and animals in its grasp.
I think there is an untold, mind staggering volume of organic material, already in transit for a millennium, on its way down to that "pressure cooker" a mile or more beneath us where heat, pressure and bacteria will transform it into tomorrows oil.
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| TomG
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5406 Upper Ottawa Valley
|
2003-01-29 48360
Non-expert here and a long way from tractors.
Near as I can figure, this planet is an extreme accident, and that accident is maintained in critical balance by what's called the carbon cycle (a web search will return many hits even if many of them are more than a little off-centre).
Far as I know volcanic activity is essential in the carbon cycle to return CO2 to the atmosphere that living organisms took out in forming carbonates in shells etc. The shells etc. become ocean sediment on its way to becoming limestone and then back into the magma in the areas Peters mentioned. Sunlight and rain drive the cycle and cloud cover provides a feedback mechanism. I think that hydrocarbons are sort of a sideline in terms of the carbon cycle but they also result from organic processes and are formed into oil, coal etc. by heat and pressure.
In terms of self-sufficiency, bio-chem probably has synthesized the organic processes and factories could be cranking out hydrocarbons, but it's likely still cheaper to pump them out of the ground. A curious way of thinking about self-sufficiency and reserves is that the idea can't really be separated from price. High oil prices would improve self-sufficiency since it would reduce consumption. Reserves also would be increased. I was never sure if the Teapot Dome actually has oil. There's a bunch in the west that's probably not counted as reserves because it isn't economical to extract it compared to the pumped variety. I still hope to buy diesel for my compact without mortgaging the house though.
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| Randy Eckard
Join Date: Posts: 1
|
2003-01-29 48368
It always disappoints me to hear and read such comments.
"Near as I can figure, this planet is an extreme accident,"
People on this board will remark about the amazing design of tractors or other mechanical devices, which show the extent of man's so called evolution. But there is no man made device in existence that compares to the complexity of even the simplest single celled organism. The real Creator is laughing at mankind’s arrogance and pride in all his “creations”. Always remember, any design requires a designer.
Randy ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| DRankin
Join Date: Jan 2000 Posts: 5116 Northern Nevada
Pics
|
2003-01-29 48372
Thank you Randy. Accidents, by definition, bring with them disruption and chaos, not organization and life. ....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| MRETHICS
Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 190 Star City, Indiana
|
2003-01-29 48373
In response to Randy Eckerd's comment.
DITTO!!!!!
Cold hard facts:
Nobody knows how much oil we have.
This planet is huge. How arrogent we are, to think we can get a complete and accurate inventory, and reulate it's usage.
We humans are an unruly bunch. Always have been. Since the begining.
Adam and Eve made that fact abundantly clear. Eve was tempted, and took a bite. Adam listened to his wife in that matter, and joined her. As it turns out, they were both wrong in their actions.
We don't know what Adam looked like for sure, but...just for fun...let's say he looked like Homer Simpson.
When God bannished them from the Garden of Eden, and they were set forth, to scratch a living from the earth....I can just here Adam(Homer) saying the following......."DOOOOLT!!!!!)
Little Known Fact:
Located about 20 miles, northwest of Evansville Indiana, you will find a woods. In this woods there is a mighty oak tree. 50 feet, due south of this oak tree, you will find a rock that is a distinct shade of green. Roll over that rock, and stick your hand inside the hole. Within this hole is a dipstick that is used to check the earth's oil level. Please remember, this must be done in the winter months. Everyone knows the earth's oil level should only be checked when cold.
I hope this clears things up a bit.
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| TomG
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5406 Upper Ottawa Valley
|
2003-01-30 48395
MrE: Nice to see you commenting again. Guess I should have known that the earth and machinery work differently. My father-in-law tells me I get wrong reading if I check the oil without starting the engine first. Guess it's a good thing because 'starting the earth' might be hard to figure out.
Randy: My throwaway comment isn't inconsistent with what you said. Thomas Aquinas might have asked '...and what created the carbon cycle' and so on in what he called a cosmology. Scientific explanations can be taken as just figuring things out within a limited framework. I was the one who said that this is pretty far from tractors and I suppose it'd be good for me to take myself at my own word.
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add PhotoOil Reserves
| Peters
Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 3034 Northern AL
Pics
|
2003-01-30 48414
I would like to debunk another myth if I might. The average price of gasoline has been tied to US inflation for the last 50 years despite the peaks and valleys.
It is a bit hard to determine which is the chicken or the egg, but there seems to be a correlation and obviously if we look at the high inflation years of the 70 and 80's they seem to be somewhat in a response to the inflationary pressure of oil prices (Not Carter).
I guess this shows the need for stable energy suppliers and that we are not really paying more for gas than we did. Maybe less.
The inflation is published number and the averge gas cost in 55 is from the US energy commision numbers.
There was a scam pulled in the 80's where the octane level of regular was lowered, therefore the old regular is now mid grade, therefore the later numbers may better correlate to the midgrade numbers.
Year Inflation Cost
Rate Regular Gas
1955 -0.31 $0.30
1956 1.56 $0.30
1957 3.38 $0.30
1958 2.98 $0.31
1959 0.58 $0.32
1960 1.72 $0.33
1961 1.13 $0.33
1962 1.12 $0.33
1963 1.1 $0.34
1964 1.37 $0.34
1965 1.62 $0.35
1966 2.92 $0.35
1967 2.84 $0.36
1968 4.26 $0.37
1969 5.29 $0.39
1970 5.94 $0.41
1971 4.31 $0.43
1972 3.31 $0.45
1973 6.2 $0.47
1974 11.11 $0.50
1975 8.98 $0.55
1976 5.75 $0.60
1977 6.62 $0.64
1978 7.59 $0.68
1979 11.28 $0.73
1980 13.48 $0.81
1981 10.36 $0.92
1982 6.16 $1.02
1983 3.21 $1.08
1984 4.37 $1.11
1985 3.54 $1.16
1986 1.86 $1.20
1987 3.66 $1.23
1988 4.12 $1.27
1989 4.81 $1.32
1990 5.39 $1.39
1991 4.22 $1.46
1992 3.01 $1.52
1993 2.98 $1.57
1994 2.6 $1.62
1995 2.76 $1.66
1996 2.96 $1.70
1997 2.35 $1.75
1998 1.51 $1.79
1999 2.21 $1.82
2000 3.38 $1.86
2001 2.86 $1.92
....
Reply to |
Quote Reply |
Add Photo
Go Top
Share This